Recently, the National Planning Commission (NPC) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) jointly launched a report titled “Study on Demographic Changes in Nepal: Trends and Policy Implications”. As defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), demographic dividend is “the economic growth potential that can result from various shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)”. Working-age population provides very favorable conditions for faster economic growth and overall socio-economic development of the country.
Nepal has been experiencing rapid demographic changes over the last few decades. It is mainly due to the decline of crude birth rate and crude death rate. According to data of Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the crude birth rate is 22 per thousand births. Similarly, the total fertility rate (TFR) of a woman throughout her lifetime is 2.52 children. The crude death rate (CDR), which shows the number of deaths per thousand populations, is 7.3 per thousand populations. Health facilities are substantially increasing and improving in the country. Life expectancy is also improved within a short span of time period. According to data, Nepal’s average life expectancy at birth is 66.6 years.
Generally, we think that the rising population is a social as well as an economic burden, which heftily impacts the society and the national economy. The government may force to fulfill the demand of rising population to ease their daily lives. On the other side, we can perceive it as a major source of support for the nation’s socio-economic development. That’s why the demographers, planners, and policymakers also reiterate in development of the quality human resources and proper human resource management. As demographers say, to develop and manage the quality human resource, all the plans and policies should be focused on an adjustment of population to the requirements of the development of the economy whereas, development economists argue that adjustment of the economy is needed according to the requirements of the population. In the context of Nepal, both situations can be considered. So, the policymakers should make effective policies taking into consideration the issues of demographic transition with the help of demographers and development economists.
A rising population is not just a problem or a threat; it’s also an opportunity for the economy and for the nation. Populations always have demographic windows of opportunities. Basically, young and working-age populations are being regarded as an asset for the nation. Their mind and muscles can substantially contribute to the economy as well as the nation too. So, capitalization of a demographic window of opportunity is highly needed. For that, plans and policies should be formulated and implemented accordingly by prioritizing the development issues.
Focusing on the demographic dividend is significant for the nation and its benefits should be reaped in time. Due to a very fast demographic transition, Nepal has a finite demographic window of opportunity period. According to the study report, the demographic window of opportunity for Nepal began around 1992 and will start to close in another 30 years around 2047. The total duration of Nepal’s demographic window of opportunity is altogether 55 years, and the country already passed half of it. Nepal will gradually become an aging society to an aged society. This will tend to make Nepal’s development pace very slow and untidy.
The study report states that the number of years Nepal would take to transit from an aging society to an aged society is 26 years. Nepal will transit into an ‘ageing society’ by 2028 and an ‘aged society’ by 2054 respectively. According to the latest census data, there is 56.96 percent working-age (15-59 years) population whereas 34.91 percent is children (up to 14 years) and 8.13 percent is aged (above 60 years) population respectively. Nepal’s total population growth rate is 1.35 percent and will double in the next 52 years. For the aged population above 60 years, the growth rate is 3.07 percent. So, the government must take required steps so that demographic dividends can be used to its full potential by the nation. Expert views indicate that we can only move forward towards the path of socio-economic development of the nation if we make the prioritized investment in today’s children and generations to come so that they become more productive than today’s adults by the time they become adults themselves. Also, we need to invest more towards today’s children to make them able to support the growing number of aged population.
Similarly, as stated (which data) in the report, 11.1 % working-age population are supporting one old-age dependent person in Nepal. Due to low birth rate, fewer numbers of children are being born these days. This will severely affect the number of youth or working-age population in the near future. Plus, people would have lived longer due to easy access to health services to some extent. Because of these two reasons, only 5.6 working-age people will be supporting one old-age dependent person by 2050 and 3.8 working-age people will be supporting one aged dependent person by 2060. This scenario shows that the number of aged population will be added more than before and their lives will become even more challenging and vulnerable.
Due to the lack of employment opportunities in the country, more than four million Nepali youth have been working overseas. They are working far more than they’re being compensated for. That compensation in the form of remittance has become the main as well as the basic source of income of their families. With the help of remittance, not only their families, but also the nation’s economy is becoming stable. So, significant contribution to the nation made by Nepalese workers overseas cannot be overlooked.
Nepalese youth have been contributing towards the development of foreign nations. If effective plans and policies can be formulated and implemented for the youth for socio-economic development and national building, Nepal can go one step ahead of its current status. Unfortunately, Nepal’s politicians, as well as policymakers, have ignored these opportunities; they have not understood the reality and they have not tried to do focus on it. Out of Nepal’s total population, 40.35 percent comprises of youth. No doubt, they are the working-age population and can provide great demographic dividends too.
To sum it up, there is a total of 37 years to reap the benefits of demographic dividends in Nepal. It is a very short span of time to do so. Therefore, the government should make effective plans and policies to reap the benefits of the demographic dividends. If appropriate policies and work plans are formulated and implemented immediately, the country would succeed in acquiring the best out of the population for the economy and its citizens.